A New Secular Bull Market Begins
Sometimes you just gotta pinch yourself…
Staggering opportunities are set to unfold ahead with life-altering benefits, services and experiences that are already weaved into the fabric of the US economy.
And just about every single thing we see today that appears normal and part of the status quo will be dated and challenged in five years.
In fact, it may happen even faster than that.
But if you think I’m talking about a shift from, say, the fanciest Mercedes they have right now to a new model with new tech and self-driving robots then you’re missing my point.
The type of change I’m suggesting is from that fancy Mercedes to your own new transport machine with wings, vertical manoeuvring, GPS self-guidance and Siri-driven geo-location options – all of which you created and customised with a 3D printer in your backyard.
It’s paradigm altering stuff.
You’ll drop into the Asda parking lot and pick up your 30-day prescription to solve what used to be considered a life-ending disease. Cities will float in air and over the sea, in space and in orbit, here and on other planets. New industries will arrive that no one even thought of, or thought possible, making even recent industries dormant.
If you felt the shift from the industrial age to the tech world was significant in the early 1980s just wait until you see the massive change and disruption ahead; compliments of the 5th Wave of technology.
The dawn of the 2020's is set to launch us into a world we cannot currently fathom.
And investors will have two choices while learning to be very, very patient:
Choice 1: Stand on the beach and watch the waves roll in, letting them wash calmly over their feet while noticing very little change around them. It will feel safe, stable and normal, with notes like this having little impact on one's thinking.
Choice 2: Grab their surfboard, paddle out to the horizon and ride the tremendous waves of change coming to shore - whether we are ready for them - or not. This choice of course will demand patience, agility and take you through many tortuous nights out there on the ocean. There will be pauses. There will be doldrums. There will be sharks and storms. Of those who choose this alternative, many will not make it to shore or experience the benefits sure to unfold.
But know this: It’s been the same set of choices every investor has had to face throughout every major paradigm shift since the beginning of, well, investing.
Now Step Back and Take Note
This next bit will go against every cell of your being.
It will punch back at every headline you’re reading today, and all those you’ve seen over the past few years.
And it will turn "expert perspective" on its head and shake you to your core.
So, what’s this oddity?
A brand new bull market began last week for the NYSE Composite.
Exhibit 1 & 2: NYSE Composite (commonly referred to as "the broad market")
The Law of Definitions
The experts have long told us that a 10% move down from a previous high is called a "correction" for the markets.
That same vast channel of experts over history has told you that a 20% move down from that previous high, stipulated the market in question had just entered "a bear market."
Those are 5-year charts of the NYSE Composite Index - the very broad measure of markets.
However, it’s important to note that other major indices also entered bear markets - for a day - on the Christmas Eve morning panic last year - and have since exited.
High to Low Percentages
- S&P 500: (SPX) - 2940 to 2346 (20.20%)
- The NASDAQ: (IXIC) - 8133 to 6190 (23.89%)
- Russell 2000: (RUT) - 1742 to 1266 (27.32%)
The Dow Jones missed by 1.11% as it only reached (18.89%) at its 12/24/18 lows.
Of importance is that all but the Russell have since:
- a) Risen from their lows,
- b) Surpassed a rally exceeding 20% off their lows (a new bull market), and
- c) Entered into new highs (a new secular bull market) by most definitions I am currently aware of.
The reason last week was sort of important is that it was only yesterday where the broad market (NYSE Comp) met all those targets, suggesting something more significant than just 500 or 30 or 100 stocks doing the same in other, narrower, indices.
How could this not be in the press literally everywhere?
A few reasons come to mind, like that it happened for only a day and the day after Christmas it was erased. And that we’ve become so accustomed to emergencies, angst and bad news that this sort of just blended into the Russia Hoax, political infighting, China Tariffs Armageddon and the end of the world as we knew it (Part 769, Chapter 6 Verse 2). And can you possibly imagine a headline suggesting something this good and positive?
"Good News - A New Secular Bull Market Begins"
Not in this lifetime, folks.