A Staggeringly Large Pile of Cash…
Here’s a bit of perspective about the on-going chatter suggesting China controls America’s destiny because, “they own a trillion dollars’ worth of US debt...."
Folks, the US Federal Reserve has sold more than that this month alone.
China needs to be indebted to us because of trade mechanisms.
That’s because the alternative is that America stops sending the business to China, and eventually they shrink to levels that would shock most observers.
And their 28-year long one-child policy has created a relative drought of people in their 30s relative to the numbers of its population that is now over 80 and under 10 years old.
So, look for a massive comeback in the US manufacturing sector.
You can have a look at the latest videos on that here: www.truvinsights.com
Some Helpful Snapshots
While it’s true that not all of the 30 million or so lost / on-hold jobs will "come back" in their old form, rest assured that far more than what was "lost" in one area will return in "new areas."
The reality is that the "Decades of Disruption" we discussed at many points during 2019 as we prepped for the 2020's and 2030's opportunities have indeed arrived.
What Are the Charts Telling Us?
The latest bearish sentiment data shows that we have arrived at a level of consecutive weekly fear readings at the 4th highest level of all time.
And, as you might guess, the bearishness is also influenced by demographics:
The second chart above shows the bull/bear difference has now reached epic levels as well, suggesting we MUST remain focused on the long haul.
In time, we will look back on this window of deep-seeded fear and find that the patient investor won.
In just the last few weeks crude oil has gone from "we will never find a place for all the oil..." to popping over $30/barrel as driving data continue to improve.
Don't Get Stuck in a Bubble
Millions and millions have been sitting at home during the lockdown watching the news...
And the worst thing in the world for long-term investors is to watch the news.
So, here are a few things you won’t see on the news:
The Latest Items of Importance from the Above Charts...
- Chart 1 from Scott Grannis of the Calafia Beach Pundit blog shows gasoline demand is up nicely, and not so far away from the previous "lower range readings.”
- Chart 2 shows an interesting read from Apple data, and how the most recent peak in the recovering data has almost reached the lows seen in the right side of the chart.
Not too shabby…
- Chart 3 shows us that internal conditions are improving and are now ABOVE the lows seen in the 1998, 2003 and 2011 bumps in the road.
Now guess where all that panicky search for cash went in the middle of the COVID waterfall sell-off?
Yep, into the bank.
Note that consumers now have almost $18 TRILLION dollars in various cash accounts.
In a word, that cash pile is staggering.
That’s a lot of rocket fuel for the recovery, folks.
The 2020's and 2030's are set to be, structurally, a replay of the 1980's and 1990's...but on steroids.