Aye, But No, But Yeah, But…”
I hear lots of stuff each day.
Calls, emails, comments by response, questions posed in posts, the lot…
It's all good stuff, and usually you can spot some themes.
The most common of which is the: “Yeah, but…"
That’s the one where someone thinks of something that’s factually correct and then finds a nice big "but" to drop in at the end of it, followed by a diatribe that seeks to throw that dingy in an ocean of uncertainty up against the rocks.
In fact, some media and so-called “expert” prognosticators have made a career out of this, because the world loves a good drama.
And look, there will always be crappy things going on in the investment markets, portfolios and headlines, and there will always be stocks that suck, 90-day reports that miss and years that disappoint.
Now let’s pretend for a moment that you’re a big (insert your favourite team here) fan and they’re in an uber-important playoff game.
Unfortunately, you weren’t able to watch the game live so you taped it for later and managed to avoid all media until you get home.
But just as the garage door was closing you’re phone pings with a text that reads “(Your team) Wins in the Final Seconds!"
You’re happy, but there goes the rest of the evening, the excitement of the ups and downs of the actual game while not knowing the final result.
But you’re a fan, so you still watch it anyway.
At the end of the first quarter / period your team is down.
And despite knowing the result, you’re slightly down too.
Tough second and third quarters / periods follow and your team is still down.
And so are you – even though you know you’re team is going to win.
The tension mounts just before the final moments – the minutia is getting to you – but as expected your team wins out in the end.
Now let’s put that process into an investment perspective.
If you knew the end result was “X” then you’d probably invest in “X” correct?
Demogronomics is a bit like that end game. It’s long-term economic forecasting using demographic research.
And if you believe that people drive economies and markets, then demogronomics is like that text you got as the garage door was closing on your way into the house to watch the game telling you how it ends.
It allows you to rise above the near-term noise, drama and tensions and consider a few facts, like these:
- 78 million people we call Baby Boomers will make certain parts of our economy busier than they have ever been for the next 30 to 40 years, and
- 86+ million people we call Generation Y will make completely change all that we know about the world as it is now.
It’s exciting and scary stuff in equal measure.
Now, have a look at this example of wild changes coming our way from Uber alone:
The geniuses that are becoming adults will make the world we live in work better, faster, more efficiently and more productively.
Things we cannot even define today across many industries will be built and become regular parts of our life.
Don’t fear it.
Think of it instead like that text you got on your way to watching all the drama of the game and realising you knew the result.
So even as you felt down at parts of the replay you were able to anticipate the end without fearing it.
We’re in great shape.
And even though we know there will be times along the path when we will feel down, times when many things will stink, keep in mind the record of high tech individuals and jobs there are coming down the road, waiting for them to change the world for us:
As the bulk of corporate earnings reports are now in we may well see some chop as people get ready for their holidays.
Normally, it picks up again a few days before America’s Thanksgiving Break and then there’s a jaunt towards the end of year finish.
And then it all starts again.
Demogronomics keeps you on this leading edge, but is also requires a much larger, more patient view of all the elements at work.
Remember, it's the long-term currents we need to invest in, not the short-term waves that make so much noise when they crash on the shore.
Generation Y is set to do much greater things, far beyond what the Boomers accomplished.
Think about it: Imagine trying to explain the power of a new iPhone to your buddies back in 1982!
It would be the stuff of Star Trek.
Keep that in mind if Uber’s announcement above made your thoughts turn a bit Trekkie.
We’re just now scratching the surface of the changes ahead.