Big Investing Opportunities Never Look Pretty
Lost in the frenzy of interest in bad news is what’s unfolding in the medical pipeline.
Extreme actions are being levied bringing a firehose of progressive fight to the Corona virus battle.
From the Malaria drug finding, to the off-label prescription allowances being permitted to protect the elderly, to the regulatory framework being relieved, the FDA is exhibiting strong offensive measures.
Teva Labs has begun round-the-clock shipping of some 6 million doses of the above-mentioned malaria drug that appears to have a positive impact on major parts of the illness.
Similarly, Mylan labs has 1.5MM treatments in the pipeline.
Between the two companies they expect 10-12MM doses to be in US hospitals between now and month-end.
What other country on the planet could accomplish this? And when would one doubt that country's ability to overcome? Foolishness.
The outcome has never been different...
The Next Playbook
Make no mistake, we are witnessing a generational opportunity that requires actions over extended weeks and months, some of which will at first seem to be foolish, unthinkable and too risky.
They’ll also require extreme patience, perspective, and a strong ability to be able to take in really, really bad data on the front-end and recognize that therein lies the opportunity.
This means expectations of profitability from these actions should not be for the next 15-180 days.
This is a long game, where the madness of cycles of emotions hide opportunities behind walls of panic.
Everything is changing. Nothing will make sense for a while. And wild storylines will unfold, and new rules will be defined.
Value investing has never witnessed such windows of opportunity.
But at the same time it’s likely never been more difficult to follow this path. The parallel here is that it’s highly likely we will see, as we did in 2008-2009, a wide swathe of investors leave the market, never to return.
Big opportunities never look pretty. In fact, the most extreme opportunities arise when we’re required to sit and let things pass and are the ugliest, most difficult, and the least likely for the masses to bear.
The world wants the US Dollar.
The world expects America’s success:
Cash demand has never been higher, panic has never been clearer, and demand for liquidity has never been so quickly stressed.
The system has coped remarkably well.
It is our belief that the outcome from this event will be as surprisingly positive as the last 23 days have been negative.
Understandably, the height with which that will be laughed off as absurd will be directly related to how much it comes to pass.