Bull Market or Bust…
It remains alive and well on any red ink for more than a week, even as we have recovered a good portion of the damage done by the Q4 equity panic.
This is all good folks, but the calendar is about to cause its own headwind that we should be emotionally steady for:
- "Sell in May" chants are just a month away. Don't be surprised to hear the media rollout earlier this year, and
- Right after that we have the "summer pause", followed quickly by the "doldrums of August" where many frustrating periods have been birthed.
The stage is set.
Note the AAII levels in the latest data:
The bulls are asleep (top chart) - and the Neutral Camp (bottom chart) is riding at very high levels - beaten during only a few time periods in history.
Just keep in mind that People Make Markets™ and demographics drive economics. And the demographics in the US will remain the positive driving force we need to focus upon for the next 30+ years.
We have had every type of crisis known to man over the last 35 years. Natural disasters, economic disasters, market disasters, political disasters, fraud, theft, greed, recessions, bear markets, currency collapses...
We have had banks go bust, S&L's go bust by the hundreds, commercial real estate go bust, Wall Street firms go bust, housing markets collapse, oil markets collapse, equity and bond markets collapse, and terrorism and wars we could have never been prepared for…
And yet, in all that mess, The Dow has gone from 900 in 1982 when I started to roughly 25,000 today.
And the next 35 years is likely to look a lot like the last 35 years – the math takes you to Dow Jones 600,000 +/- 25,000.
The Barbell Economy™ is here.
Demogronomics™ tells us People Make Markets™
The 80/20 rule of life suggests that 80% of what unfolds in the world of opportunity ahead will be focused on these two generations of people noted above in that picture.
Make sure this is on your investment radar.