If That’s The Way It Goes, Which Way Are You Headed?
Even though it’s August (and things should be boring) it somehow feels like the world is ending.
Blood pressures are up, stress is rising and even the more strong-willed out there seem to be letting those ugly little headlines seep into their collective thinking.
That media noise can plays tricks on your mind, your emotions and your psyche.
It leads you to believe in things that almost never unfold. In fact, they usually end going in the opposite direction.
Here’s some recent examples:
- The year started with fears over a strong dollar hurting corporate profits, then Q2 handed us all-time record profits and the dollar is at one-year lows.
- Just a few weeks ago the market was a bit rocky and the headlines blared that rates were breaking to the upside. The 10-year Treasury hit (gasp) 2.39%, and many thought it was sure to go a lot higher with the US Fed raising interest rates. Dial forward and bonds have approached their yearly lows while the fear trade raced back to the front of the line.
- The consensus said OPEC cuts would bring oil back to life, and $100 per barrel was on the way again. Now imagine that for a quick moment; we’re cheering to pay more for Middle East oil imports. That’s nuts. They’ve got oil and sand. And we don't need any more sand.
- Just days ago North Korea was all the rage for Armageddon. Well it looks we wasted a lot of time, energy and print over nuclear war. I swear at times we all act like children with about five years of life experience. Now, find me a headline in the financial press on North Korea. Seriously, just one.
Sometimes the media conjure up fears like it’s an ugly after-world Hollywood movie.
Roll the credits.
The absolute shellacking taking place in the retail world is stunning.
Of course, it’s always captivating to watch an entire sector get disembowelled.
But folks, how many times have we lived through these "this is obviously bad" scenarios, only to find a recovery followed?
And how many more times until we learn that cycle?
Don't get me wrong, there are always weak links out there. We want them because innovation and change makes things better and creates improvement.
Rest assured, whatever we improve today will be deemed broken later at some point down the road.
So don't sweat the small stuff.
Have you been to any stores lately? Has everyone left? Are all the customers sitting in the parking lot ordering stuff from Amazon?
I mean, do you really think that we are all going to become zombies, stop leaving our homes to shop and then kaput: It's all gone?
Let me tell you what is more likely in the future - other than all of our shopping needs going through Amazon.
I suspect a year from now that many hedge fund cowboys and the PE capital guys will be chowing down on cheap, busted retailers.
They’ll will take activist positions, get board seats, cut costs, adjust store count, and remake malls as glitzy VR-based entertainment attractions.
And someone patient will be make a killing.
That’s the way it goes.
So don’t start heading the wrong way.