Meanwhile, Beyond the Apocalypse…
"A wise man adapts himself to circumstances, as water shapes itself to the vessel
that contains it." - Chinese Proverb
Collectively, our patience has taken us through quite a lot this year.
And while there’s still the month of December to roll in, as the snapshots below will show you there’s a lot of light up ahead shining through the darkness.
A Few Realities First…
Let’s remind ourselves that prices had an exceptionally good November run, and the odds are solid for an annual Santa Claus Rally as well.
But it always helps to not get too excited, just as we suggest we don't get too downtrodden on corrections.
Let's keep that in mind as we head into the first weeks of 2021.
Suffice to say that I would not be at all surprised if January, after the next few days of normal heavy inflow on corporate retirement year-end cash inflows, turned in a red number for the month.
Let’s hope that expected price action burns off the elevated confidence of short-term traders to set the stage for all those terrible stories about a down January.
Call it one of my Christmas wishes!
As for the Long-Term Benefits...
The first two stats above portend good news continuing to build into America’s pipeline of future expansion.
Construction spend is increasing year-on-year – and right in the middle of a pandemic.
And so too is manufacturing - with the steepest improvement ratings in years.
This fits nicely with the data from a few weeks ago where we highlighted record-setting backlogs and new orders on the manufacturing front.
The US Housing Engine
Now, if you gaze through the bullet points above, you’ll see there really isn’t that much to frown about.
The trend is going nearly precisely where we’ve long suggested it would, working as the first major sign of growth waves for the 2020s and 2030s.
We will run out of houses in many areas. The wave of buyers is growing steadily and has a very long tail, with about ten to fifteen years of buyers steadily entering the market.
Builders better act on their "record setting confidence" from the last couple weeks or we will be out of houses for a lot longer than we need to be.
The Funny Part?
Well, try as they might, the media still managed to create a problem with this data. Check it out for yourself (below) in their most recent reporting comedy break:
Note the process of deception in the "news" and why it causes so many to misunderstand just how good things will be over the next many years - even as we all live through the normal storms of the times ahead.
The wording - "Home Prices Fall as High Prices Take Their Toll...."
Hmm, yes. Then in the key points, they really didn't fall all that much as the year-on-year increases were over 20% - numbers that are unheard of in housing sales data.
Then again "the toll" that the first headline suggests is somewhat confused I suppose by the "prompted bidding wars" in the second key point.
Why? Well, because we’re running out of houses.
And There’s More…
The world adapts. And we must adapt as well.
Yes, the pandemic caused brutal damage. Many lives have been affected. And even more businesses have been hit by hard times.
But, in reaction to that, companies have manoeuvred around the abyss and are climbing back up the mountain.
Jobs will steadily flow back into that new adapted world, though not every job lost will return.
Thankfully, better ones will emerge for most.
The Bottom Line?
While many have been watching the scary headlines about all the businesses closing, they missed the data flow about all the businesses being launched anew:
The Tough Trek
Building wealth over the long-haul means following the current, not the waves.
It means taking in all the crap, not being swayed by it, and staying on your pathway through the good as well as tough times.
Ignore the negative and often twisted headlines, and most certainly those that relate to your money.
The media hype machine has slowly (almost imperceptibly) become a black mark unleashed on an unsuspecting public.