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Independent financial advisers founded in 1975
Over £1.4 billion client funds under management
17 industry awards for advice since 1989

By Mike Williams, Genesis Managing Partner

Founder and Managing Partner of Genesis Asset Management, New York

Letter from America

The House of the Rising Sentiment

By Mike Williams | Thursday, 19 December, 2019

We’ve spoken often about the explosive stages of disruption, evolution and expansion in the 2020s and 2030s ahead.

Alongside them will be vast missteps and damaging pathway choices. There will be plenty of disasters along the way.

There may even be a time out there somewhere that will make you wish it was 2008-2009 again.

This is the way our economy has unfolded since the beginning of records being kept.

Hence, the new things we’ll be taught to fear will seem oddly similar to the old things we learned to fear, and all of which unfolded while markets meandered up a very sizable mountain.

Running Out of Houses

By example, there are a few things are steadily unfolding in the housing world, like the experts telling us Generation Y doesn't have any money to buy a home.

But nothing serves notice on “expert predictions” like introducing the past to the present.

We laugh about memories of the Baby Boomer generation when they were 25 to 32 years old and didn't have any money either.

It all comes out in every generation’s wash and spin cycle: We are soon going to run out of houses for Gen Y to buy.

This week we learned Homebuilder's sentiment hit a 20-year high!

Here’s the comment directly from the report:

A stronger economy and a severe housing shortage have the nation’s homebuilders feeling better than they have in two decades.

But you know how this works…

The media takes hold of anything resembling good news and drags it away to strangle in a dark corner.

Happy doesn’t sell.

And so, they tell us that all is not perfect in the homebuilding market, suggesting "Builders could likely be doing even better if they didn’t face so many headwinds."

“While we are seeing near-term positive market conditions with a 50-year low for the unemployment rate and increased wage growth, we are still under-building due to supply-side constraints like labour and land availability,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.

“Higher development costs are hurting affordability and dampening more robust construction growth.”

Hey, But Permits Backed It Up This Week!

Permits to build hit a 12-year high!

Just in time for the waves of buyers set to roll in like an avalanche in the 2020's:

And yes, the bad news quickly followed:

"But the scope for strong gains in the sector, which accounts for about 3.1% of the economy, is limited as builders complained they are still underbuilding due to supply-side constraints like labour and land availability.

“In addition to land and labour shortages, mortgage rates have backed up in recent weeks after the Fed signalled further rate cuts were unlikely.

“The U.S. central bank kept rates steady last week and indicated borrowing costs could remain unchanged at least until through 2020.

“The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 3.73% from a year-low of 3.49% in early September but is still below its peak of 4.94% in November 2018, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac."

It's almost funny.

Let’s pray for more headwinds, more difficulties, more problems to solve and work around.

They’re the engine of innovation, and the lifeblood of improvement and expansion.

©2023 Alan Steel Asset Management Limited is authorised & regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Please note that the Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate some forms of tax advice. Company Registration: SC58014

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