The Investor Intelligence Survey?
While most can probably recite the general headline themes of late about risk, the China Virus and the next apocalypse, what about the stuff that’s been missed?
I thought the above chart on "recession time" during each decade was fascinating.
And my hunch is that if you asked a million investors to name the one decade since the 1770s that had no time spent in recession, few if any would be able to tell you it was the one we just ended.
Of course, while everyone was paying attention to the dour headlines, the following also went mostly unnoticed:
Now, I’d like to explain the benefit of the final chart above.
It’s called the "Investor's Intelligence Survey."
And it covers advisors and advisory newsletters, noting the rising expectations ("B") for a correction.
The red line at 30 marks the historical average of the data spanning decades.
Note that "A" marks the two largest corrections we have seen since the tech bubble top in 2000.
At the end of 2000 - the lowest reading on record – it shows that no one expected a correction.
And at the second "A" arrow we see leading into 2008, less than 20% of the experts expected a correction.
Now, have another look at the "post 2009" time periods. There are vastly higher numbers of consistent readings have been presented above the 30 line.
In fact, more readings have been above than below that line ever since 2009.
What it shows is the underlying and ever-present tension over the last decade, and the "hair-trigger feeling" of hitting the correction button standing just under the surface of even a mild setback.
Yep, it’s a survey.
Is it intelligent?