The New Normal?
In case you’re wondering how strong the consumer is, the image below shows the structure of US GDP.
Of note - If you see a lot of red, that's good.
That means full jobs, full salaries, full employment, and massive capital levels to invest in new technology mean slow and steady growth wins the race:
What else can we see in the consumer stats while the US / China trade war headlines rage against the dying of the fright?
Well, there’s a pretty solid pipeline build on home demands.
And that part of the pipeline of upside is literally just beginning.
Expect the tide to rise for years.
The upshot is that home demand is rising amongst Gen Y.
And all those dominos are set to fall our way for years.
I thought I'd bring your attention to the purple arrow (up top) highlighting "the warning signs."
They aren't any, actually. It’s just another example of how we’re conditioned to expect bad news; where anything good always holds warning of impending doom.
No wonder the average investor feels completely shell-shocked but is never quite sure why.
Here’s a snapshot from just one column of "daily news" from CNBC:
In the end guys - we are just going to have to recognize that "knowing everything all the time" brings with it a huge need to ignore most of it for most of the time.
Where To Now?
We are weeks away from the start of the Q3 earnings season.
Expect it to be like the last several; choppy, sloppy, and full of emotional reactions, knee-jerk thinking, itchy trigger fingers and too much algo-bot trading.
The winners in the long run are the same. They’re patient, disciplined, and able to overlook the incessant, wasted noise designed solely to throw you off your path.
My hunch is that there’s some chop ahead, and maybe another dip during the earnings parade; then a race to the finish as we head into the brave new world of the 2020s.
A Summary of Ideas
The winning themes of wealth-building plans will all have generally encompassed (primarily) these same boring themes noted for years now:
- Rates will stay low - for a long-time
- Inflationary "pressures" will see temporary spikes on a downward path overall
- Generation Y will wash over the landscape like a 30-year tide
- Technology will be the driving force
- Embrace the higher pace of change - or be left behind, and
- It is not trouble - it is the new normal.
Pray for corrections. They’re not to be feared as they are the purveyors of your future long-term returns.