Alan Steel
01506 842365
MENU
  • Home
  • About Us
    • Close
    • About Us
    • What We Do
      • Close
      • What We Do
      • Our Services
      • Our Philosophy
      • Our Awards
      • Our Reputation
    • Who We Are
      • Close
      • Who We Are
      • Meet the team
    • Our Approach
    • Financial Planning
  • Testimonials
  • Investments
    • Close
    • Investments
    • Investment Advice
    • Portfolio Building
  • Pensions
    • Close
    • Pensions
    • Retirement Planning
    • Early Retirement
    • Pensions as simple as...
  • Tax
    • Close
    • Tax
    • Tax Advice
    • Tax Planning
    • When I'm Dead and Gone
    • Inheritance Tax
    • HMRC Digital Accounts
  • Insights & Media
    • Close
    • Insights & Media
    • Letters from Linlithgow
    • Informing You
    • Letter from America
    • See us in the Press
    • Master Investor
    • Points of Few
  • Contact Us
Independent financial advisers founded in 1975
Over £1.4 billion client funds under management
17 industry awards for advice since 1989

By Mike Williams, Genesis Managing Partner

Founder and Managing Partner of Genesis Asset Management, New York

Letter from America

The Next Significant Bull Market

By Mike Williams | Monday, 27 April, 2020

Far and away in the future we will query the "shoot first and ask questions later" pathway for investing…yet again.

The reality is the investing process sometimes just guts you, and it can last for a while.

But they do end.

In fact, historically the down periods tend to rocket back for years to come.  

Why?  

Well, all major setbacks cause one major shift in mindset: We shed the old and build the new. And we reconfigure, create and reinvent the new normal. 

As much as everyone thinks that new normal is some sort of new phrase or thought, it’s been around forever. 

It has happened after every shock. So, don't fret. 

Things come out the other end better than before.

Think like Warren Buffett has thus far: Stay quiet, let the extreme record levels of panic work through the system.

And just like Chicago (or even Scottish) weather, if you don't like it right now wait for a few minutes…

The trade range beginning to form will provide ample long-term opportunity and rebalancing benefits. And remember the tax value of losses will increase as well, as we will surely see tax increases sooner than we think to begin to pay down the cost of this event.

The Chatter

What shape will the recovery mimic? Will it be a U or a V or a W or a Nike Swoosh?

Folks, it’s all just meaningless chatter and empty speculation from a podium lined with broken crystal balls.

The bottom line here is that COVID has not changed the underlying current.  

The Barbell Economy© is here for the next 35-40 years, so get your surfboard and start paddling out into the storm...and be prepared. 

As for Investor Sentiment?

Best to describe how investors are feeling at the moment as "In the tank."  

And as much as this is going to be frustrating to hear, I can't tell you how good that is for the long haul.  

After 38 (this coming August) years of doing this, I can assure you it feels like I am watching a replay that I’ve seen before like 10 times. 

The AAII survey is now showing two bears for every bullish investor respondent. 

And the Bullish read itself is now just 4 ticks away from the lows we reached in March of 2009 - some 17,000 Dow Jones points ago:

In a nutshell - for every person who thinks good about the future, 3 think of it poorly.

It matches well with the stats we saw from BAML recently.

Net-net, sentiment is precisely where you want it for long-term horizons ahead.  

That does not mean it all changes overnight.  

What it does mean is that history proves to us that every bear market or shock creates the foundation for the next significant bull market.

©2023 Alan Steel Asset Management Limited is authorised & regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Please note that the Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate some forms of tax advice. Company Registration: SC58014

You should remember that the value of an investment and the income from it could go down as well as up. The return at the end of the investment period is not guaranteed and you may get back less than you originally invested.

The investment services and/or investments referred to in this website may not be suitable for you. If you are unsure we suggest you contact us to discuss matters further. If we believe our services are not right for you we will tell you.

When investing money, whether for income or growth, you are placing your capital at risk as the value of investments may vary, so you could get back less than you started with.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate Tax Advice, Trusts or wills. Alan Steel Asset Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The guidance contained in this website is subject to the regulatory regime of the UK.

The Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS) is an agency for arbitrating on unresolved complaints between regulated firms and their clients.

FOS details can be found at www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk

Alan Steel Asset Management Limited are not responsible for the content of external sites.

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Website terms and conditions
  • Tax Services Privacy Notice
  • Contact Us

This site uses cookies. By using this site you agree to the use of cookies. Read our Cookie Policy