Alan Steel
01506 842365
MENU
  • Home
  • About Us
    • Close
    • About Us
    • What We Do
      • Close
      • What We Do
      • Our Services
      • Our Philosophy
      • Our Awards
      • Our Reputation
    • Who We Are
      • Close
      • Who We Are
      • Meet the team
    • Our Approach
    • Financial Planning
  • Testimonials
  • Investments
    • Close
    • Investments
    • Investment Advice
    • Portfolio Building
  • Pensions
    • Close
    • Pensions
    • Retirement Planning
    • Early Retirement
    • Pensions as simple as...
  • Tax
    • Close
    • Tax
    • Tax Advice
    • Tax Planning
    • When I'm Dead and Gone
    • Inheritance Tax
    • HMRC Digital Accounts
  • Insights & Media
    • Close
    • Insights & Media
    • Letters from Linlithgow
    • Informing You
    • Letter from America
    • See us in the Press
    • Master Investor
    • Points of Few
  • Contact Us
Independent financial advisers founded in 1975
Over £1.4 billion client funds under management
17 industry awards for advice since 1989

By Mike Williams, Genesis Managing Partner

Founder and Managing Partner of Genesis Asset Management, New York

Letter from America

Who Broke the Market’s Crystal Ball?

By Mike Williams | Wednesday, 18 October, 2017

Corporate earnings continue, in the majority, to beat expectations.

And we’re not future-gazing here when we say that this trend is normal in the first few weeks of the earnings season.

It’s only once we get past the companies that make up about 80-85% of market capitalization that the focus then moves forward, and the "misses" tend to come last.

But knowing how that process works doesn’t stop folks from trying to create an alternative reality of doom-and-gloom about this process.

So What is "Normal"?

And while oftentimes uncomfortable, it’s perfectly normal to NOT know what’s going to happen in the future (I’ve yet to meet anyone who does).

Which is why I always chuckle when I read headlines calling out “uncertainty about the future” as if someone just knocked over and broke the global economic crystal ball.

The reality is that what we’re now witnessing are some of the lowest percentage levels of available capital exposed to the US stock market in decades.

That’s another record high, by the way.

And while this is just my opinion, I think with markets at record highs and exposure at record percentage lows, when all that money in the global financial bathtub starts to roll back towards the stock market we might be in for some rather extraordinary movements in what is already an eight-year-long bull.

Of course, we don't know the future, only the past. And that past includes watching markets get cut in half from two previous record high positions.

But the allure of predictions is that the human mind tends to get stressed when it doesn’t have a reason to explain things.

That’s why headlines (any headlines) are devoured as a way to justify (rightly or wrongly) events and give us the perception of “knowing.”

It’s both a false sense of security and a poor way to structure an investment strategy.

Unfortunately, as an investor you have to learn to live with a few things:

  • It is normal to have ugly periods in markets.
  • It is normal that we have corrections.
  • It is normal that the future looks cloudy.
  • It is normal that there is uncertainty.

By the way, these points have been true since the market came into existence.

And it’s not normal to assume those bullet points above mean something bad is coming our way.

We’ve all seen what happens when money stops moving, as it did for a brief moment in 2008-2009. And we’ve all seen the recovery to the lofty position where major stock markets now sit, alongside growth in key sectors that suggests good things to come.

And one of those factors is the over $10 Trillion sitting idle in banks right now.

So if tomorrow America’s consumers who control that enormous $10 Trillion pile of cash suddenly decided they were only $9 Trillion worth of "afraid of the economic uncertainty" and the "unclear future," our GDP would explode for 6 or 7 quarters in a row.

Yet somehow the experts would tell us that’s a bad thing too.

Let’s be thankful where we are and from whence we’ve come.

It’s been a slow and steady upward economic cycle.

The operative word being “upward.”

©2023 Alan Steel Asset Management Limited is authorised & regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Please note that the Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate some forms of tax advice. Company Registration: SC58014

You should remember that the value of an investment and the income from it could go down as well as up. The return at the end of the investment period is not guaranteed and you may get back less than you originally invested.

The investment services and/or investments referred to in this website may not be suitable for you. If you are unsure we suggest you contact us to discuss matters further. If we believe our services are not right for you we will tell you.

When investing money, whether for income or growth, you are placing your capital at risk as the value of investments may vary, so you could get back less than you started with.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate Tax Advice, Trusts or wills. Alan Steel Asset Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The guidance contained in this website is subject to the regulatory regime of the UK.

The Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS) is an agency for arbitrating on unresolved complaints between regulated firms and their clients.

FOS details can be found at www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk

Alan Steel Asset Management Limited are not responsible for the content of external sites.

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Website terms and conditions
  • Tax Services Privacy Notice
  • Contact Us

This site uses cookies. By using this site you agree to the use of cookies. Read our Cookie Policy