Why Missing Out is Far Worse Than Running Out
The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) came out late last week revealing a staggering number of new US job openings.
And yet, that’s got to be bad somehow, right?
Well, there are more jobs available, more interviews unfolding, more salaries to be paid, more revenue to be earned, demand to be created, retail sales to be had and maybe, just maybe one or two more houses to be sold.
This is horrible stuff, folks! Off with their heads. Make for the bomb shelters. We’ll stay offline until the nuclear dust settles.
Hey, wait a minute…this market information actually sounds kinda good.
And there’s more of the same.
It seems all those new job openings, rising wages and the robust nature of more jobs coming online is making consumers feel, well, really good.
But you tell me if you agree with that assessment:
Sadly, from the media’s perspective the end is neither nigh, near or at very least it’s lurking.
And while the "consensus" points were all higher than in the last report, the media spends its entire day telling us how bad things either are, or soon will be and to prepare for some kind of impact.
All of this would be funny if it didn’t cause folks to run towards bond funds or cash investments when interest rates are historically low.
The underlying message here is that we’d better get those robots into the workforce soon. Yep, I’m talking about those same robots you’ve been told to be terrified of, because if we don't get our mechanical friends trained up and running, we’re likely gonna run out of people to do everything that needs to be done to keep pace.
More change, arriving faster than before and landing in geometric ways.
If you fall asleep for too long you will wake up in a place you don't recognise.
Quantum computing applies the laws of quantum mechanics to process information.
As people do not see quantum processes in their day-to-day lives, this technology can be difficult for non-scientists (like me) to grasp its effects.
But they are massive.
Instead of acting on binary ones and zeros, quantum adds “superpositioning” to those ones and zeros.
In simplest terms superpositioning allows ones and zeros to exist in multiple states at one time. It also allows “entanglement,” which synchronises particles separated by vast distances.
This allows systems to factor large numbers that traditional computing technology could not do. And it allows for the formation of data in almost every field to be seen in 3D, understood better and acted on more productively.
This technology will change everything from supply-chains and manufacturing processes to cancer and health remedies.
Quantum and edge-computing will combine to advance many technologies, and by extension, the stocks of many tech-oriented companies. Quantum processes will significantly expand abilities in fields such as cryptography, algorithms, communications, defense, and basic computing.
While we will not see it in mainstream use for a few more years, large companies are already using it to improve.
As we’ve said here many, many times: Over the next 3-5 years every company will become a tech company; no matter what it spits out as a service or product, it will be all tech internally.
Now, I know it kinda sucks when markets meander around and take time to get back on their route up the mountain.
But those are the periods where long-term investors benefit by learning to be patient and wait.
That’s because missing out sucks even more.
And for that little reality check I’ve borrowed a chart posted recently by Wells:
That’s ugly but entirely necessary side of investing. You have to take the bad or you rarely get the good.
The historical data is simply too compelling and obvious to deny this fact.
Over the last 30 years ending December 31, 2018:
If you missed the 50 best days in the market since then, you lost about a half percent.
If you missed the 40 best days - you made less than 1%.
Miss the best 30 days of the last 30 years and you get just 2.07% on your money.
Stay in the long game. Even when you have to play hurt.
And pray for a correction.